Monday, September 30, 2013

DTS Trade Room Updates & October Schedule

Thanks to everyone who could join us in the rooms for September. All trade room schedules for October are the same as September except for a few things to note. Ray’s rooms are now every Thursday and Friday each week instead of Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Also, we are excited to announce that on October 8th we will roll out our first equities trade room run by Michael Filighera. Michael’s trade rooms will be every Tuesday & Thursday, 6:15am-8:30am PST and will walk you through exactly how to use Diversified Trading System (DTS) for trading Equities. To get access to October’s trading rooms, you need to re- register. Click the links below to register for October’s rooms. All DTS Bird members have access to these trade rooms and recordings you can access both the invite link and recordings in the DOJO. Here’s the weekly schedules: Omar’s Forex Room Starting on October 1st, 2013 Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday – 2:00 AM – 5:00 AM EDT Bonus Room for NY Open Thursday –

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96747/dts-trade-room-updates-october-schedule/

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Market Awareness Talks… Gordian Knot Walks…

Interesting how the markets have come off of post FED highs, and seemingly many haven t gotten the memo yet that the Gordian knot in place cannot be untangled by the rote systemic computer trading.  Trading that continues to follow a prescribed time table without updating the changes that have occurred in between has in my humble opinion produced a strong recipe for disaster and a larger one at that.  I doubt it will be the program traders that get hurt as most of the trades executed are hedged if not covered within seconds.  Yes, I do mean seconds. Think about this – 40 years ago the average investor held a position for 8 years.  In 2013 the HFT and algorithmic traders are holding a position for an average of 16 seconds – yes 16 seconds.  If you want verification just follow the NYSE TICK as it swings from +1000 back to 0 and then to -500.  Doesn’t take very long.  Now imagine you have the ability to “blast” 1000 to 10,000 buy orders or sell orders a second and you h

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96728/market-awareness-talks-gordian-knot-walks/

Good Losses and Bad Wins

In the world of trading, winning is the goal right??  And when we take the loss, we made a mistake right??  Today I want to speak on somewhat of a weird concept.  Over the years I have traded, I have learned that sometimes wins are bad, and losses can be good.  Some of you will be able to connect with this idea right away, while the rest of you are probably scratching your head thinking How can that be?  Allow me to explain. As many of you know by now, my first experience trading forex was unexpectedly great, followed by a horrific experience that almost wiped my entire account out.  I came into trading currency not really knowing anything about trading, since all I had done prior to this experience was invest in equities for the longer-term.  I bought an EA and started taking my own trades on top of the signals the system fired.  I risked way too much and had no idea what I was doing.  My first week of trading was amazing.  Pretty much all my orders won and my account grew

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96682/good-losses-and-bad-wins/

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Feeling Seasick Yet? Choppy Wednesday Trade

Wednesday was a “woulda, coulda, shoulda” type of day, where trading resembled a container ship getting battered around while crossing the Pacific Ocean in a typhoon.  Where traders quipped, I would have done that trade if ..  I should have done that trade because my target was .. And I could have done that trade but ..  As is so often the answer There s no such thing as coulda, shoulda, or woulda.  If you shoulda and coulda, you woulda done it.  Ha! So, what was going on and why?  To sum it up in a single sentence: End of quarter position adjusting.  It is common for the last week of a quarter to be more reflective of what is being adjusted – the long side or the short side?  Just follow the choppy sequence – Treasuries up, U.S. Dollar down, Gold up, equities down.  There is a connectedness to it all as well – When treasury prices move higher, yields go lower, when yields move lower it will take the U.S. Dollar with it – why; because the yield on the dollar is si

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96712/feeling-seasick-yet-choppy-wednesday-trade/

How to Succeed Trading the S&P50, Sort of…

It’s no secret that the S&P 500 and I have a very difficult past together to say the least. It’s also public knowledge that I don’t trade the ES any more as well. There are many traders out there that do trade the ES and they are successful, I am unfortunately not one of them; the real question is why not? Early on in my trading career, I traded the ES like the majority of new traders out there; way back when it provided good liquidity (and it still does) and it actually moved with some sort of consistency and conviction. These days, in my opinion, not so much; let’s face it: all markets have changed and will continue to change. As the ES slowed down more and more, I began to fail more and more. I had no earthly reason as to why this was happening. As far as I was concerned it was purely the markets fault and there was no way it could be me or my methodology……..or was it? I had to face the facts; I was doing horrible with the ES. I had a conversation with my broker about t

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96697/how-to-succeed-trading-the-sp500-sort-of/

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Volatility Takes A Hit or The Return of Blind Faith & Complacency

The recent beloved pattern of “If it’s Tuesday the Markets must be Higher!” remains in place for now.  Although the DJIA and S&P 500 were unable to hold higher ground the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 did.  The Russell 2000 (RUT) pushed to additional new highs on Tuesday surging over 17 points intraday.  This is basically a 1% move, which is notable for several reasons.  The percentage intraday move was larger than what was seen in the DJIA, S&P 500 and NDX.   Giving support to the migration into small cap stocks having picked up momentum More Mom & Pop investors who continue to search for higher returns against a decaying backdrop.  The S&P 500 (SPX) pushed down to 1687.50 before starting what should ultimately be a quick rebound rally.  Resistance for this type of move remains at 1703, 1708, and then 1711.  A break above 1712 should clear the path for an attempt at the 1727 to 1735 area. A break below 1687 may usher in the next leg down within the context of a larger cor

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96688/volatility-takes-a-hit-or-the-return-of-blind-faith-complacency/

Day Trading Using DTS, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci

Elliott Wave Principle The Elliott Wave Principle is a system of derived rules and guidelines first used to interpret the major stock market averages. As applied and used by R.N. Elliott it offers a precise road map of the “underlying” being analyzed. There are 4 rules and 9 guidelines that have stood well against the test of time. Don’t break the rules and apply the guidelines. Anything different is effectively not the Elliot Wave Principle and becomes the “John Doe” Principle.

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96639/day-trading-using-dts-elliott-wave-and-fibonacci/

Monday, September 23, 2013

Computer Glitch Strikes Again! + Monday Updates

On September 9th the U.S. Government auctioned Treasury Bills via the normal procedure whereby banks enter multibillion-dollar orders via the New York Federal Reserve’s computer systems to participate.  Unfortunately, Goldman Sachs was again at the center of a ‘glitch’, which had the NY Fed blocking their order. Now, I don t feel sorry for Goldman Sachs, but what does concern me is the larger implication of how one investment bank can impact the entire global treasury market.  The Treasury department did not release many details about how or what happened stating only that it suffered “a technical issue that prevented one bidder from participating in the 3-month auction.  The ‘glitch’ is the latest in a growing string of technical problems in the U.S. financial markets which creates additional mistrust amongst traders and investors that are frankly getting tired of wondering what’s next.  It would seem that after the “greedy” humans and malfunctioning computers t

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96676/computer-glitch-strikes-again-monday-updates/

Optimizing Profit and Stop Loss Targets

How to Optimize Your Profit (and Stop Loss) Targets by Erich Senft, CTA Don’t you hate it when you take profit on a trade and the market continues on a lot further without you? That’s almost as good as getting tagged on your stop loss only to watch the market reverse and head to your intended profit target (and maybe continue past it!) What’s going on? Why is it so difficult to make set efficient profit and stop loss targets? The problem originates with the assumption that the markets never change, and of course that is a bad assumption. The markets are constantly changing, expanding and contracting to reflect what is currently going on in the marketplace. Just understanding that the markets are in constant flux will better equip you to take advantage of what the market is giving (or not giving) and allow you to set effect profit and stop loss targets. How do you do that? The first thing you need to consider is the market’s Average Daily Range, or ADR. Notice that the Average

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96671/optimizing-profit-and-stop-loss-targets/

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Big Weekend Edition for September 22, 2013

I don’t know how I managed it. I’m not even over my first summer cold, you know the one with the annoying cough that has been plaguing me for the last couple of months, and now I’ve picked up yet another cold! I guess this one is going to be my “fall” cold. So here I am with sniffles, aches and pains and a runny nose, coupled with my annoying cough. Sounds like a commercial for a cold medicine doesn’t it? I’m tired of it. Thank goodness it’s only “annoying”. I’d hate to be really sick! I hope I get over it soon. I’m supposed to drive friends to the airport on Tuesday as they depart for their trip to Italy. They wouldn’t be too happy with me if I passed on a cold as a bon voyage gift! I’m sure I’ll feel better by then though. A couple more hot rum toddy’s and I’ll be good as new. Enjoy this week’s issue, Erich erich@supportandresistance.com Papertrades Currencies Market Overview Australian Dollar The AD hit “retracement mode” just shy of our firs

http://www.supportandresistance.com/tradingblog/big-weekend-edition-september-22-2013.html

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Inside Day as the Focus Turns to Triple Witching Expiration Friday

The focus on Thursday turned quickly from follow through “FED” buying to position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s triple witching expiration.  New highs were rejected early producing more of an inside day with volatility traders also adjusting positions as many September positions expire throughout the trading day on Friday.  Volatility Indexes The volatility quickly evaporated on Wednesday after Bernanke’s statements as many were caught “off guard” by the FED Chair announcing no tapering yet.  Thursday’s trade initially was again in the direction of crushing volatility with volatility indexes sinking.  The VIX is again teetering just above the 13 level.  As a directional indicator, the VIX is based on the prices (real-time) of options on the SPX listed on the CBOE.  The future is designed to reflect traders’ consensus view of expected market volatility 30-days out.  As a gage of market complacency or market fear the VIX moves higher during periods of uncertainty a

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96634/inside-day-as-the-focus-turns-to-triple-witching-expiration-friday/

How Much Can I Make?? Goals and Planning When Trading

Hi Folks!! A question I have gotten quite often in my life when I work with various types of traders is what to expect with returns from trading.  The email usually sounds something like: Hi Omar!!  I was wondering if you could share with me how much you are making per month (either in $$ s or %) so I can know what to expect for myself After getting over the initial shock that someone would ask something so personal, I started to try to figure out how to best answer this question.  I have no problem being open and honest about anything, but I have certain sensibilities which usually prevent me from sharing every detail of my life indiscriminately.  But I realized that even if I simply told each of these people asking the numbers, it would not help their trading one bit.  Why??  Because everyone s experience is different!! Day trading is not like a regular career choice or job.  There are no guarantees for success overall and it s got such a wide range of results people find fro

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96259/how-much-can-i-make-goals-and-planning-when-trading/

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Ain’t Technology Grand??? DTS Forex Live Sessions Issue Update!!

Survey Says… New Highs for DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000

The markets put in a stellar “Billy Graham” rally after the FED announcement on Wednesday.  Equities, treasuries, precious metals, and many commodities all surged higher as the U.S. Dollar plummeted.   Billy Graham rally or sell-off is a term I use to describe a situation when equities, treasuries, precious metals, and commodities all go in the same direction while the U.S. Dollar moves in the opposite direction.  Frequently the same underlying reason will be in opposite corners as to the “why”?

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96615/survey-says-new-highs-for-djia-sp-500-and-russell-2000/

[Video] Back-Testing for the New York Open Trade for the Eagle Trend Trader

Do you ever notice how the market tends to move a certain way at a certain time of the day?  I do!  For years I stayed away from the open for at least the first half hour of every day and for years I missed out on some pretty great moves, with DTS, this has now changed for me.  In this video, I will demonstrate how I back tested the NQ (NASDAQ) at the 9:30 New York Open with precision, accuracy, and very little time to discover a great DTS trade that I’m sure after YOU test it, you will believe. The rules are simple, the only addition to DTS is the time and to learn a simple pattern.  I only take this trade between 9:30 a.m. E.S.T., and I will give it up to 30 minutes to “make its move”.  Enjoy the video and look for more to come for the Hawk and Falcon as well.  Don’t take my word for it, check it out, test it out, and decide for yourself.

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96590/rays-back-testing-for-the-new-york-open-trade-for-the-eagle-trend-trader/

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Facebook The New Market Leader?

There are times when I just sit back and watch what motivates traders.  Today was one of those days.  A few months back I read where there was a pattern (self fulfilling) where traders bought on Tuesday because the markets move higher.  I remember thinking how ignorant can that be – but the reality is that it has continued to happen.  Aren t the markets more sophisticated than that?  Don t analysts spend hours and days pouring over numbers and charts to determine value and what the next move will be?  I guess not – so again, I reiterate when a market moves in either direction based on emotion rather than fundamentals it is very likely a “sucker” move or in Elliott terms a “B” wave.  Remember computers don t have emotions the function within the parameters of the program running and until those parameters change don t expect the market gyrations to make economic or financial sense.  Despite the total breakdown in Facebook on Monday, traders returned on Tuesday to

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96584/96584/

Trading Options Using DTS – Part Four – Managing Winners – High Volatility Strategies

Strategies Employed In Using Volatility to Your Advantage The Iron Condor An Iron Condor is a defined risk options trade, which as a strategy can be highly effective in taking advantage of period of high premium.  Volatility is a major factor in deciding to use this strategy.  As a general rule Iron Condors are employed when volatility is high.  As volatility increases you can widen the strikes, which will improve your probability of profit.   Selecting which strike prices to use is an important factor in successfully trading an Iron Condor.  Since, Iron Condors are used when volatility is high, and the objective of the trade is to collect premium you would always be a “seller” of the Iron Condor.  Selling an Iron Condor is the simultaneous selling of a call spread and a put spread.  When volatility is “rich” look to the strike prices that allow you to collect premium that adds up to at least one third of the width of the strike prices.  For example on a five dollar w

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96555/trading-options-using-dts-part-four-managing-winners-high-volatility-strategies/

Monday, September 16, 2013

Perception Is Not Always Reality – The Markets are Higher Because…

Larry Summers took his name off the list of potential candidates to lead the FED.  As an outspoken critic of quantitative easing, the markets were “thrilled he would not be in charge of taking away their ‘fix’ too quickly” – seriously?  Some would rather hang their rally hat on the weekend agreement between the U.S. and Russia in ridding Syria of its chemical weapons.  Reality on the other hand would say both of these reasons are emotional and not fundamental.  Why, because both were not reasons the market was heading lower prior to the news hitting the wires.  So if the threat of war has been somewhat removed and the threat of rising interest rates have not been removed wouldn’t reality eventually run over perception?    Hasn’t the FED already made that decision on rates via stating their intent to cut back on purchases?  The bottom line is the markets did surge higher on Monday and shorts were squeezed hard.  Trading opportunities were available today, the NA

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96565/perception-is-not-always-reality-the-markets-are-higher-because/

Are You a Weatherman Trader?

What’s the difference between a Weatherman and a Trader? I asked this question at our forum a little while ago and stumped quite a few people. Do you know the difference? On the surface they seem the same, but there is a very importance difference between the two. The main difference between a Weatherman and a Trader is that the Weatherman tries to predict what will happen next, whereas the Trader reacts to what IS happening. A subtle difference, but understanding that difference can make, or cost you, a lot of money. Too many traders get caught up in trying to predict what the market will do next. I have friends pushing stock charts in front of me all the time asking “where’s it going from here?” The truth is I don’t know, no one does (and if they tell you differently they’re lying) but what I do know is IF the market does THIS, then THAT should happen – that’s reactionary. That’s reacting to what the market is doing, not trying to predict what it WILL do. Case in p

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96561/are-you-a-weatherman-trader/

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Big Weekend Edition – Pre-Christmas Markets

I can’t believe it’s the middle of September already. Didn’t we just have Labour Day? Time really speeds up from now to Christmas as everyone’s in a rush getting back to work and getting’ stuff done. Everyone except the markets that is. Last week was one of the flattest week’s we’ve seen in a while. The week started off strong but faded fast as contract expiration loomed in the Stock Index and Currency markets. I thought we’d have a stronger showing Friday, but it too was dismal. I had to keep checking my data feed to make sure I wasn’t disconnected. I’m hoping for more “normal” markets this week. Hopefully the markets have worked out whatever their issues were last week and we can pick a trend again. But we’ll see. I’m hosting the trading room again Tuesday and the trading/education room on Wednesday so stop by if you have the time. If the markets aren’t doing anything then at least I’ll have someone to talk to. Keep an eye out for an email with the si

http://www.supportandresistance.com/tradingblog/big-weekend-edition-pre-christmas-markets.html

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Overbought – Part II

The markets paused on Thursday as futures traders concentrated on rolling futures contracts and setting their sites on Friday’s options expiration.  As I discussed on Wednesday the rallies in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have been strong.  The SPX gained over 3% in less than a week.  The rallies were not fundamentally based but considered more of a “relief” rally in response to the diminished threat of the U.S. military strike in Syria.  The reality is that the markets got ahead of themselves very quickly in pushing prices nearly back to record highs.  In the process the broader indexes reached extreme overbought levels.  This has brought out many signs that the “bounces” are nearing an end.   The McClellan oscillator is again pushing into overbought and the move resembles what took place back at the June bottom, which ultimately lead to the declines we saw in August.  If nothing else the McClellan oscillator is suggesting stocks are currently extended to the upside. 

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96548/overbought-part-ii/

Pyramiding………..Not Just For Ancient Civilizations!! Using Multiple Orders To Your Advantage In Trading

So there you are you ve done your homework and taken the trade.  You found a great spot for entry, all signals were go, and you entered the market.  Within a few minutes of getting in the market though, you find yourself in drawdown. You have a 50 pip stop and before you know it, you are half-way there.  You think Well, if I thought my initial entry was a good price to get in, I should really love where the market is now and take another order. That will make it so much easier to get to profit once the market moves in my favor, IN FACT, I won t even have to get to my original entry before I hit b/e. Yeah . the ol dollar-cost averaging philosophy.  Although this works great much of the time when you are investing based on fundamentals over the longer-term, it can be a seriously risky maneuver when trading based on technicals in the short-term. When I started trading forex, I had the unfortunate experience of having VERY good results right at the beginning.  Why was this unfortunat

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96482/pyramiding-not-just-for-ancient-civilizations-using-multiple-orders-to-your-advantage-in-trading/

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Overbought!

Are the markets climbing the wall of worry or building a skyscraper out of a house of cards?  The action on Tuesday and Wednesday leaves little to the imagination as we witness the indexes rocket into the stratosphere.  I have been discussing the attributes of “B” waves in that often the moves are emotional and lack any fundamental “ground” underneath to provide the support needed to sustain the weight being put on.  This continues to be the case.  It is times such as this that a “turn” often occurs as if without warning – “out of the blue”.  The S&P 500 future has been on one-way ride since reversing course intraday on September 6th.  The index has climbed $50 in four days, which is an impressive move.  In the process the market has become extremely overbought as registered by the stochastic oscillator pushing to it’s maximum level of +100.  There are times when the “weight” of the markets brings them back to the “mean”.  Such a time seems to be a

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96521/overbought/

10 Things for Getting Set-up for Pre-market Trading (space, office, tech)

Setting up for pre-market trading is really not that much different than getting yourself situated for trading during regular trading hours; typically I try to have myself set up as follows for regular trading hours: 1. Set-up Your Trading Environment For starters, I like to have a nice, quiet, as secluded space as possible for my desk to be set up at.  I want as little disturbance and distraction as possible. 2. Check for Viruses & Software Updates Before I do anything, I check my equipment.  I make sure all my virus scans have run so it won’t interrupt my training and I also make sure my updates have completed as well.  There is nothing worse than being in a trade and the old Microsoft update wants to restart your PC. 3. Check Your Internet Speed Next, and this is important, I run a speed test through www.speedtest.net .  You results will vary according to your ISP and location, but from the Denver area, I like to see a ping speed no greater than 42 milliseconds from here to C

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96500/getting-set-up-for-pre-market-trading-space-office-tech/

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Open Forum FAQ Friday Recording – September 2013

First up, thank you to everybody that joined us on last Friday s FAQ session. We had a great time and tons of great questions. The first part is with Ray and Michael with Erich jumping on about an hour in. Join us for the next demo of DTS in action. Here s the recording of the session: Here s some of the questions asked: How would you choose which instrument to trade on any given day? What would be the process of elimination to decide which instrument to trade? Do you prefer fundamentals or technical trading? What are your favorite tools as a trader? What is the best trading timing on your opinion, if I would trade only 2 hours? What do you think of the current regulatory environment in regards to trading? how much of a retracement would you consider to have satisfied a test of the extreme ? How do you determine that a trend is taking place and when has ended? Is a Macro Line Pull Back a fair entry or requires a lot of caution? (Too many of my MLPB end up being wrong entries). The dai

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96494/faq-friday-recording-september-2013/

Monday, September 9, 2013

Impressive Rallies Continue, But Evidence Still Points Down Near-Term

Don t be Fooled by the Elusive Elliott “B” Wave Even though I have been trading for over 30 years I am still amazed by the markets.  In particular I am astounded at how much computers have taken over the trading process.  Choosing a trade is no longer about anything fundamental.  If it were much of what I’ve witnessed would not happen.  Algorithmic programs rule the markets these days.  It is something that has been in the works for several decades now.  I doubt analysts are the higher paid employees at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, or Citi Group.  Software engineers command the big bucks these days. Monday’s trade was a continuation of the topping process to complete what remains a classic Elliott “B” Wave.   Upward (directional) “B” waves are phonies.  They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise.  They are often emotional and rarely technically strong.  For the most part almost all “B” waves are doomed to be c

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96476/impressive-rallies-continue-but-evidence-still-points-down-near-term/

Diversification – the Key to Opportunity and Success

Diversification can be a Valuable Tool in the Day Trader s Trading Toolbox In the world of investing “diversification” is synonymous with “safe”, “secure” and “smart”; yet in spite of the advantages diversification brings to trading it is a relatively foreign concept to day traders. Money managers and trading professionals know the advantage of diversification which is why diversification is a key component of any retirement savings plan. No one questions the logic of diversifying investments when it comes to a retirement plan. Everyone knows that diversification lowers risk, and if done right, the good investments will outweigh the bad ones. The good news is that the advantages that diversification brings to your 401k are the same advantages that diversification offers your day-to-day trading. The key to successful diversification is “doing it right”. Diversification on the day trading level is more than just trading a variety of markets; rather, diversification f

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96406/diversification-the-key-to-opportunity-and-success/

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Big Weekend Edition – Aging and Trading

This weekend marks our Grandson’s sixth birthday. Six years? Wasn’t I just writing you about his birth? Where did six years go? I don’t feel six years older – oh wait a minute, yes I do. Have you noticed how as you get older everything gets “further away”? Like the floor for instance. Seems to me it was a lot easier getting down to the floor a few years ago, but now it seems like an awfully looong way down (and even longer getting back up). Or the items on the top shelf of the cupboards. When did they get so far away? Am I shrinking? I never had to get a stool to get those things? Are you sure the cupboards didn’t grow? Where’s my tape measure…? And books! I used to be able to read with my elbows bent. What’s up with that? Did they start making the text smaller in print? Thank goodness Windows has a magnifier, not that I have to use that yet, but at this rate it’s good to know it’s there. Who knows what the next six years will bring? I don’t know, but I have

http://www.supportandresistance.com/tradingblog/big-weekend-edition-aging-trading.html

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Volatility Selling + Low Volumes = B-Wave Top

Volatility Selling + Low Volumes = B-Wave Top The equity markets held their ground on Thursday as treasuries and precious metals sank deeper into the abyss along with the Euro as the U.S. Dollar rally kicked it up a notch.  The name of the game on Thursday was “selling volatility.”  Statistically, two weeks prior to options expiration is the time when front month volatility gets crushed.  This could get upended or pushed out a bit if the markets remain “wishy-washy” towards the yes or no vote on military strikes in Syria.  What did strike me were the methodical program traders that moved in today to bring volatility back down.  Not that this is totally out of line, but the across the board “vol crush” may bounce back and bite the hand that feeds them.  There is good reason for the uncertainty in the market at the moment.  Whether or not we all agree or not doesn’t prevent the underlying concerns to evaporate.  Volatility selling may turn out to not be the trade i

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96401/volatility-selling-low-volumes-b-wave-top/

To Every Season, There Must Be Reason……..To Trade!

As I sit here, my window is open and a draft floats gently by.  There is something different about it today.  A quality that is both untouchable and at the same time, completely knowable.  The current of air today has a soft undertone, rather just a glimpse of the soft end to Summer and the transition to Fall.  Just as the leaves will change and a chill will eventually come, the landscape will look different.  As in the world, forex also has its seasons.  The market can dramatically change from one period to the next. For myself, the trading year always begins in Fall.  This period, which ends the summer trading session, generally sees volume return to many markets.  I personally mark the end of summer at Labor Day, but much of the time we don t see the full Fall volume return until towards the end of September.  Just as people take vacations during the summer months, the markets almost invariably see a sharp drop in volume.  Fall sees this activity return to forex, as Europ

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96347/to-every-season-there-must-be-reason-to-trade/

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Monkey See, Monkey Do – Short Covering Rally Gone Wild

Monkey See, Monkey Do – Short Covering Rally Gone Wild According to Miller Tabak’s chief economist Wednesday’s rally was due to “Equity investors appearing to react to a positive outlook being reflected by Ford’s decision to boost output – itself a sign that a Fed tapering would arrive as the economy is strengthening, no weakening.”  Seriously? Did anyone bother to check volumes?  If there was a flood of buyers pouring into the market on Wednesday they all must have been trading somewhere else. I doubt the buyers on Wednesday were investors seeking to jump in on all stocks because Ford’s decision to increase production in the 4th quarter.  It appeared more like an avalanche of basket buying of stocks.  Did anyone notice that when the algorithmic traders turned on computers (30 minutes into the session) they had one objective – cover shorts.  In the broader indexes I have been tracking the development of a “B” wave rebound rally within the ongoing 4th wave de

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96373/monkey-see-monkey-do-short-covering-rally-gone-wild/

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Is a Rotation Out of Treasuries – Into the NASDAQ Gang of Six Underway?

Is a Rotation Out of Treasuries Into the NASDAQ Gang of Six Underway? One trader’s garbage is another trader’s treasure.  Sure seemed that way on Tuesday as the markets jumped higher on the “no news is good news” development picture on Syria.   But then gold had enough selling and moved solidly back above $1400, crude had enough selling and pushed back above $108.  The DJIA and Russell 2000 briefly went negative, with both leap frogging their way back to higher by the close.  The Gang of Six + Facebook look have taken on the leadership roles for the NASDAQ 100 and to a lesser extent the S&P 500.  Facebook’s upgrade from last Friday continues to support the somewhat skewed “flight to quality” as money drains out of the bond market.   It will become increasingly difficult for the gang to shoulder the burden as the bulls torch bearers.  When this becomes apparent the disappointment should resemble a smack down and will likely be kicked into gear by an external even

http://www.indicatorwarehouse.com/96340/is-a-rotation-out-of-treasuries-into-the-nasdaq-gang-of-six-underway/

Monday, September 2, 2013

Tread Lightly! Forex Trade Update for September 2nd, 2013 — DTS Forex

Big Weekend Edition – Labor Day Weekend

Happy Labor Day weekend, folks! This edition has a lot of charts, lots of markets are moving and shaking. This last week was our Strata’s Annual General Meeting. If you haven’t had the privilege of living in a strata environment before, the AGM is always a real treat. I’m saying that tongue in cheek of course. There’s nothing like getting a couple dozen of your neighbours together to discuss how their money has been spent and how you’re going to spend their money next year. I’ve been involved in a lot of strata’s over the years and I know how quickly they can go bad. Many Strata Councils have the tendency to develop a “God complex” and start implementing one by-law after the next in an attempt to legislate decency. Of course it doesn’t work. If the Federal Government has been unable to find ways to make people be decent towards one another what does a puny Strata Council think they’re going to do? For this reason I usually volunteer to be on Strata and I was Pres

http://www.supportandresistance.com/tradingblog/big-weekend-edition-labor-day-weekend.html